The two big back-to-school forecasts disagree — which is itself the useful signal. The National Retail Federation projects total back-to-school and back-to-college spending of $146.8 billion from June through September, with college spending topping $100 billion for the first time at $103.5 billion, up from $88.8 billion in 2025, per NRF figures released at its July 21, 2026 consumer trends webinar and reported by Forbes on July 23. Deloitte's 2026 Back-to-School Survey, also out in July, projects K-12 spending of $30.4 billion — down 6% — with $557 per K-12 student versus $570 last year, citing inflation at 4.2% in May.
How can the forecasts point opposite ways?
Different measures, different baskets. NRF's total includes college spending — electronics-heavy, dorm-furnishing-heavy, and growing — while Deloitte's headline is K-12 households only, where budgets are tighter and the surveyed intent is to buy fewer, cheaper items. Both can be right: families with college students are spending more, and K-12 families are economizing. The disagreement is a reminder that back-to-school "records" are category-weighted aggregates, not a description of any one family's receipt.
What does the K-12 pullback look like in stores?
Deloitte's finding of a 6% spending decline per household (per its 2026 survey) matches the strategies families report: shopping earlier to catch lower prices, buying only what last year's wardrobe lacks, and shifting basics to value channels. Retailers have responded with earlier promotions — supplies deals began in early July this year — and bigger own-brand presence in supplies and basics. Expect the sharpest stationery and basic-clothing promotions in the first half of August, when price-conscious households are actively shopping and every chain is matching the dollar stores.
Related stories: February's Late Retail Sales Report Showed Spending Up 0.6% — and Slower Post-Holiday Momentum · Store Closures in 2026: The Chains Cutting Locations and What It Means for Shoppers.
Where is the money actually going?
Electronics lead the college basket: laptops, tablets, and dorm electronics are the categories NRF's college figure owes its growth to, and tariff-linked price increases have been announced across electronics and apparel through spring. That combination — rising input prices against economizing households — makes August the bargaining window: retailers' back-to-school volume targets are fixed, and the last two weeks before local school start dates are where unmet targets turn into price cuts, particularly on big-ticket electronics bundled with accessories or services.
Practical timing for this month
- Supplies: buy in the first half of August; the loss-leader penny-and-folder deals peak early and vanish when volume targets are met.
- Clothing: shop the first tax-free weekends where applicable — state-level holidays, not federal — and the mid-August promotion stack.
- Electronics: wait for the final pre-semester window if you can; bundle pricing and student discounts stack best in late August.
- Anything non-urgent: skip entirely — post-Labor Day clearance on summer-adjacent goods is deeper.
Figures per NRF (July 21, 2026 webinar; Forbes July 23) and Deloitte 2026 Back-to-School Survey, July 2026.